Thursday, May 29, 2008

Survey BBM

Setelah bosan membaca tulisan yang puitis, saya tergelitik untuk posting hasil polling kemarin di lebih dari 12 kota di Indonesia. Pada responden ditanyakan "Bagi Anda yang pada 2009 memilih SBY, apakah anda tetap memilih SBY apabila harga BBM kembali dinaikkan ?". Secara logis tentunya jawaban "tidak" akan muncul sebagai pendapat mayoritas. Namun hasilnya ternyata diluar dugaan.


Metode polling adalah by phone dengan jumlah sampel 800 orang. Apabila asumsi penduduk yang memiliki telepon adalah menengah keatas, maka saya pribadi merasa lega. Dengan Asumsi polling ini mewakili pendapat populasi penduduk menengah keatas maka saya berpendapat masih banyak orang waras di Indonesia.


Apalagi setelah membaca email dari bung chaikal di millist yang mendukung pendapat Pak Kwik bahwa minyak di Bumi Indonesia merupakan hak rakyat indonesia maka dari itu harganya adalah Rp. 0. Oke argumen ini begitu noble, mulia, kerakyatan. Namun penduduk Indonesia tidak semuanya melarat. Masa' orang kayak Bakrie atau soekanto tanoto boleh menikmati minyak bumi secara gratis?


Selain itu pendapat dari Pak Kwik menurut saya akan membawa pada pola konsumsi energi yang boros. Pada akhirnya adalah meningkatnya polusi dan kerusakan Alam. Demikian, tulisan ini merupakan pendapat pribadi.

42 comments:

Carlos said...

60% wow gede banget tuh..

Harusnya pertanyaannya diganti tuh, jadi begini;

"Apakah Anda menginginkan calon presiden 2009-2014" yang berjanji menurunkan harga BBM?"

Chaikal said...

Bung, anda menulis melompat-lompat.. nah biar agak jelas saya kutip lagi apa yang saya tulis di milist (setidaknya, untuk kembali anda renungkan):

"Saya rasa Kwik tidak salah jika mengangap tidak ada subsidi BBM. Minyak didalam bumi pertiwi adalah milik rakyat, pemerintah hanya 'numpang mengelola'. Dengan pola pikir seperti ini, seharusnya benar tidak ada subsidi BBM karena BBM seharusnya gratis atau paling tidak hanya seharga biaya produksi/distribusi plus managemen fee saja.

Nah, silahkan dianalisis pola pikir sedemikian itu.."

Tapi apapun anda menempatkan saya karena komen itu, argumen yang anda berikan disini justru sangat mungkin untuk di-counter balik menjadi merasionalkan pendirian Pak Kwik..

Rajawali Muda said...

counter balik gmana tuh chaikal?
kayaknya komentar KKG dah dari dulu di counter ama tulisan arya gaduh ama ape.

Buat jadi bahan perenungan Udara, misalnya juga harusnya gratis,tapi kenapa orang orang eropa sekarng mesti bayar mahal biar hutan hutan dikonservasi di kalimantan sana?

Chaikal said...

Mmmm Bung Rizal, saya percaya sepenuhnya dengan pasar, saya percaya dengan semua konsekuensi negatif subsidi dan juga (kalo mau adil) pajak..

Dalam konteks ini, komen saya adalah sebagai tanggapan dari pertanyaan: adakah sebenarnya subsidi BBM?

Jika pertanyaannya ini (kondisional dengan pola pikir yang melandasi pemikiran KKG) maka jawabannya jelas: tidak ada!!

Yang harus didebat bukan jawabannya tetapi justru pola pikirnya, mengapa pola pikir seperti itu salah..

Chaikal said...

Untuk konteks gratis, analogi udara dengan minyak saya rasa tidak relevan..

Saya rasa udara murni public goods kalo minyak tidak..

Basis analisis KKG, property right minyak dimiliki rakyat.. rakyat berhak memaksimisasi fungsi utilitasnya dengan menentukan konsumsi kepemilikannya sendiri..

Orang eropa ingin membayar karena akan merasa lebih baik (utilitas) dengan konversi hutan di kalimantan..

dengan analogi yang sama, bukannya rakyat juga berhak menentukan utility functionnya sendiri!

Anonymous said...

Orang Awam.

Pak Chaikal coba buka NK atau APBN. Disitu jelas ada alokasi pengeluaran negara untuk subsidi BBM.
Jikalau memang subsdi itu tidak ada, hapus saja dari NK atau APBN. Biarkanlah Pertamina menset harga premium, solar dan Minyak Tanah sesuai cost yang mereka keluarkan.

Chaikal said...

Dear Bung OA (saya akan lebih menghargai jika menggunakan nama asli).. kalo awam saya juga awam..

ada subsidi oleh karena harga minyak ditetapkan sesuai asumsi APBN (kayaknya 90$), dalam arti rakyat harus membeli minyak dengan harga tersebut yang sebenarnya minyak itu miliknya sendiri..

perlu diingat, mekanisme pasar selalu melibatkan agen penjual dan pembeli dan untuk kasus subsidi/pajak ditambah agen pemerintah..

nah untuk kasus minyak ini, siapakah yang menjadi penjual, siapakah pembeli, dan dimana posisi rakyat sebagai pemilik minyak diposisikan? dan dimana posisi subsidi dalam pasar yang seperti ini?

memang akan lebih adil dengan mengatakan begini:
subsidi BBM memang tidak ada, yang ada adalah subsidi pemerintah untuk kesehatan pendidikan, kemiskinan, infrastruktur, dll.. (dan ekonom pastinya setuju dengan pernyataan ini, daripada uangnya habis dibakar (BBM) lebih baik untuk investasi)

namun sayangnya, argumen ini salah secara prinsip. seorang teman saya yang mumpuni mengatakan: dasar dari keuangan publik yang benar adalah adanya keterkaitan antara pengeluaran dan pendapatan dalam anggaran pemerintah..

dalam arti jika pendapatan dari minyak seharusnya pengeluaran juga untuk sektor minyak, pengeluaran infrastruktur seharusnya dari PPN, pengeluaran program kemiskinan dari PPh, dst.

maka akan sangat benar jadinya jika hasil pendapatan BBM selama ini diinvestasikan untuk sektor minyak terutama R&D, penguasaan teknologi, pembaruan kilang dll. namun sayang, kenyataannya tidak demikian..

lalu kemana lenyapnya (windfall) profit yang selama ini masuk ke kantong pertamina dan juga pemerintah? jawabnya pasti ada di para pencari rente..

hingga ujung semua ini adalah kemirisan dan ketakutan saya, yaitu orang yang paling berdosa di negeri ini mungkin adalah orang kaya.. yang kaya dari uang rakyat di pemerintah (departemen, pertamina, dll.)

yang sangat mungkin ketakutan itu, ternyata, untuk diri saya sendiri..

Rajawali Muda said...

Very sorry bung chaikal for my very late response.Saya ada Beberapa tanggapan

[1] masalah subsidi dan pajak,Walau dicurigai distortif,tapi jelas akan tetap ada, masalahnya adalah mau digunakan seperti apa dan efektif atau tidak.[2] saya dari dulu cenderung menilai kenaikan harga BBM lebih sebagai kenaikan pajak dan fungsi distributif negara main disini. Jika utilitas masyarakat yang disebut bung chaikal disini, agak sedikit tricky dan simplifikasi karena utilitas bertingkat di dalam masyarakat sendiri.Jika harga BBM tidak mengikuti harga pasar maka akan selalu ada market failure/flaws in the market, contoh Collective action problem,baik konsumen boros BBM maupun pemerintah akan selalu lebih nyaman untuk tidak merubah keadaan sekarang, padahal jelas lubang semakin lebar,dan yang paling penting opportunity cost yang makin besar.[3] Definisi subsidi yang saya pegang adalah konsep opp.cost tersebut, bukan hanya prinsip akuntasi dari teman bung chaikal yang mumpuni tersebut [4] Sepakat mengenai perlunya supervisi lebih baik ke pertamina dan BP migas,karena uang windfall profit itu mesti digunakan buat hal hal yang jauh lebih penting
[5]mengenai ide mengenai udara sebagai pembanding,justru karena konsepnya KKG menilai BBM sebagai pure public goods kan? bahwa minyak itu milik rakyat, semua orang mesti bisa menikmati dengan gratis, karena tersedia secara gratis, disediakan oleh tuhan yang maha esa, the owner of all public goods in the world. Yang saya mau tunjukan adalah ada masalah eksternalitas dan informasi asimetris yang tidak selalu masuk ke dalam itung itungan pasar apalagi akuntansi,mungkin cost BBM kecil, tapi bagaimana dengan opportunity cost? counterfactual analysis bahwa seandainya uang yang dibakar di jalan raya,digunakan untuk produksi masal teknologi mungkin kita sekarang gak usah tertatih tatih dalam pembangunan
[6]Saya yakin bung chaikal lebih mengerti konsep opp cost dari saya dari yang saya tankap dari komen bung chaikal, gimana caranya windfall profit digunakan untuk hal yang lebih baik, OK saya setuju sekali. Tapi konsep KKG adalah "subsidi itu gak ada, pemerintah bohong dan ada mafia minyak"padahal kalo memang mereka sepakat dengan apa yang kita sepakati (efisiensi penggunaan windfall profit)seharusnya mereka langsung saja bilang, "penggunaan keuntungan minyak itu kurang baik, tolong disupervisi",atau "bikin saingan pertamina" Jadi sepertinya pola pikir mereka ya tidak sepenuhnya seperti bung chaikal(kalo saya bener nangkepnya).

salam

Chaikal said...

Dear Bung RM,

1. setuju,

2. kenaikan harga BBM = kenaikan pajak, ini hanya permainan terminologi aja bung, subsidi negatif sama dengan pajak, pajak negatif sama dengan subsidi.. jika memang untuk fungsi distributif mengapa tidak dengan menaikkan pajak ke masyarakat kaya sebesar ’subsidi’ BBM yang dinikmatinya.. (untuk hal ini saya akui, tidak menghilangkan efek negatif subsidi)

3. pasar yang mana bung, pasar minyak sekarang adalah contoh paling nyata kegagalan pasar. saya lebih memandang ada principal agen problem antara masyarakat dan negara, karena mungkin perantaranya (DPR) juga tidak bisa/tidak mau merepresentasikan fungsi utilitas masyarakat. Meskipun saya akui anda benar bahwa ada utilitas yang bertingkat didalam masyarakat..

4 dan 5. maaf bung, prinsip itu bukan prinsip akuntansi, itu murni prinsip ekonomi, untuk mendapatkan welfare maksimal dari mendistorsi pasar adalah mengembalikan hasil distorsi ke pasar tersebut bukan malah mendistorsi pasar lain.. justru dengan mengalihkannya ke pasar lain maka kita telah kehilangan opportunity cost lebih besar lagi. Dan mungkin karena konsep ini tidak dijalankan dari dulu, beginilah perekonomian kita sekarang, rakyat miskin harus bayar pajak (kenaikan harga BBM)!

’minyak sebagai public goods’: bukannya kalo konsepnya demikian, masyarakat justru harus bayar (pajak) untuk ketersediaannya (malah tidak gratis), sama saja seperti jalan, mercu suar, dll. dan justru konsep inilah yang dipegang oleh mayoritas ekonom bahwa kalo mau minyak, rakyat harus bayar..

Kalo KKG minyak justru dianggap sebagai private goods-nya masyarakat. jadi dengan demikian KKG menyimpulkan tidak ada subsidi BBM. dan masyarakat berhak menentukan konsumsi dari kepemilikannya sendiri..

dan disini, sekali lagi, ada principal agen problem, bahwa pengelola (pemerintah) memiliki kepentingan berbeda dengan pemilik (rakyat).. bahwa masyarakat dianggap tidak mampu mengambil keputusan ekonomi yang terbaik buat mereka..

mungkin saya juga salah jika menyebutkan air sebagai public goods.. dalam konteks orang eropa ingin membayar hutan kalimantan berarti mereka setuju ada property right terhadap produksi udara, ada property right terhadap hutan di kalimantan.. dengan analogi yang sama, seharusnya pemerintah mengakui property right rakyat terhadap minyak didalam bumi pertiwi Indonesia.

6. setuju.


Anw bung RM, secara fundamental saya setuju bahwa minyak harus dinilai sesuai dengan nilai keekonomiannya.. dan terkait dengan principal agen problem, saya membayangkan solusi seperti ini: serahkan pasar BBM ke mekanisme pasar, lakukan transfer income (cash) ke masyarakat seluruh pendapatan hasil penjualan minyak yaitu sebesar [QxPpasar dikurang biaya produksi, pengelolaan, dll. per jumlah penduduk]. Sedemikian, konsumsi BBM individu, berapapun besarnya, ditanggung sendiri (dengan harga pasar tentunya). mekanisme ini juga lebih hemat karena hilangnya biaya distribusi dari kilang ke SPBU..

Dengan mekanisme ini, tidak akan ada lagi terminologi subsidi BBM, tidak akan ada lagi penimbunan, tidak akan ada overconsumption.. jika pemerintah butuh investasi di sektor minyak, ya tinggal dikurangi pendapatan minyak dengan besar investasi minyak tersebut..

untuk pengeluaran infrastruktur, kesehatan, kemiskinan dan lain-lain gunakanlah instrumen pajak yang tepat yang telah disebutkan pada komen sebelumnya.

Bagaimana bungs, terlalu utopis ya, yowislah dah ngantuk juga neh... wassalam.

Rajawali Muda said...

Untuk [2] dan [3] kayaknya lo ngulang omongan gua deh kal :D
yang [4] dan [5] kayaknya gak selalu seperti itu deh kal, marginal returns (ala arrow dan debreu) kan gak statis, Marshall udah klarifikasi karena ada efek spill over dan increasing returns, nah hal yang sama juga terjadi dengan opp.cost, berapa marginal benefit nguasain teknologi minyak dibanding marginal benefit buat bikin sekolah IT (misalny) atau teknologi lain, tapi gua setuju sih seharusnya windfall minyak dipake buat teknologi energy alternatif (daripada maen maen ama blue energy ga jelas :D)
Konsep solusi di [6] menarik, tapi solusi buat collective action ala olsoninan pake selective incentive kan udah dibahas ama mas aco kalo gak salah. Sebenernya BLT itu ya salah satu selective incentive walau kecil buat masyarakat untuk berubah,lah wong orang pejabatnya dikasih insentif malah makin males, gak efektif :D.Gua rada rancu nih agent-principal yang lo sebut maksudnya penggunaan APBN buat utilitas maksimal rakyat ya? atau BBM doang? atau BLT? kayaknya smua punya masalah yang sama deh.
standar keynesian kan masalahnya gini gini terus. Satu satunya cara ya supervisi, tapi bukan dengan malah demo demo rusuh,yang malah ngerusak utilitas masyarakat.

salam bung..

Rajawali Muda said...

eh satu lagi, masalah KKG gua bilang public goods, ya maksudnya private,sorry salah kmaren ketuker ama barang masyarakat, :D

Chaikal said...

Bung, basis fundamental pemikiran gw adalah minyak adalah milik rakyat, yang dikelola oleh pemerintah, jadi gak relevan nyebut olsonian disini.. lagipula mas aco gak nogomongin BBM tetapi beras, BLT ke petani miskin..

untuk kasus beras dalam konteks minyak jelas berbeda, kalo beras diproduksi oleh rakyat dan (seluruhnya) tidak dikelola oleh pemerintah..

nah, principal agen problem terjadi karena ada perbedaan kepentingan (utilisasi) rakyat (pemilik minyak) dengan pemerintah (pengelola).. untuk menjembatani dua kepentingan itu, solusi yang saya bayangkan adalah kasih cash aja uang hasil minyak..

untuk spillover, justru karena ada efek ini bung, maka sebaiknya balikin distorsi ke pasar tersebut, setelahnya biarkan spillover effect bekerja.. (bukan dengan langsung mendistorsi pasar yang lain dengan hasil dari mendistorsi pasar yang jangan2 pasar tersebut juga sudah terdistorsi, duh bingung gw, sorry..)

anw bung, dari komen pertama anda selalu membawa nama senior-senior kita yang agung, entahlah itu positif atau negatif atau mungkin hanya ingin sekedar jujur dalam mengutip dll..

tapi apapun itu, jika KKG saja bisa salah, mengapa senior-senior itu (selalu kita anggap) benar..

but thx anw for the discussion bung RM, setidaknya sudah sedikit terkonvergensi sekarang.. bawalah semua ilmumu ke sini, sekalikali join diskusi kita, ok wassalam.

Chaikal said...

NB: (untuk prinsip akuntansi) harus benar dipahami bung RM, itu bukan prinsip akuntansi, gila aja, gw alergi banget dengernya, thx anw..

liberal man said...

Menurut saya carut marut pengelolaan perminyakan akan selesai apabila negara tidak ikut2an. akan lebih baik apabila Pertamina di buat seperti PT. telkom atau PT. yang lainnya.

Dengan begitu tidak usah lagi ada ketidakberesan masalah akuntansi lah, ini-lah, itu lah. tinggal nanti yang miskin2 dan hampir mati karena harga-harga yang meningkat, kita kasih subsidi yang sebesar-besarnya.

bagaimana?

nb: saya berharap Bapak Chaikal membuka kembali buku textbook ekonomi. yang dasar2 aja dulu. dan mudah2an dengan begitu akan mendapat hidayah.

Chaikal said...

waduh, makin banyak orang tanpa nama disini..

tapi lucu juga, ada orang liberal meminta gw bertobat, tobatnya disuruh baca buku text ekonomi yang dasar-dasar, tapi diatas semua itu, dalam konteks ini, punya kesimpulan yang sama ama gw..

but anw, terimakasih telah diingatkan secara juga dah lama gak ngajar yang dasardasar, entah mengapa seringnya dikasih yang kuantitatif..

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.adidasforum.com/adidas-grun-pack-kicksonfire-com/]Adidas Forum[/url]
Now here is a shoe-in for the list of the year's best gaming-related clothing : Adidas has brought back its ZX 5 hundred running shoe, and, since it originally comes from the '80s, the gaming galvanized design and coloring is a no-brainer ... Right? The kicks won't be the coolest part of the deal, either ; they come packed with a combo bracelet/USB flashdrive containing ZX Runner, a computer game based primarily on ... The shoe itself.

GameCulture writes the game stars a personality named'DJ Zed' who, according to Adidas, has five mins to'run, moon-walk, climb walls, avoid some dodgy-looking thugs, collect power-ups, and pull off insane rooftop-to-rooftop stunts' to get on-stage before his set starts. It's fittingly retro -- see for yourself in the video we've included after the breakdance.

More info
Adidas Forum

Anonymous said...

Hello, as you may already noted I'm newbie here.
In first steps it's really nice if somebody supports you, so hope to meet friendly and helpful people here. Let me know if I can help you.
Thanks in advance and good luck! :)

Anonymous said...

I just discovered [url=http://bit.ly/bMGrYw]SatelliteTV[/url] on my PC! Ultra cheap at only $50 once off to get the software and an account on the Internet. I get more channels(in HD I might ad) than I get on cable so tomorrow I reckon I'm going to cancel my cable subscription. Thought I'd share this with you guys, worth to check out.

Anonymous said...

Hello,

I am Sabrina Rojas, Affiliate Executive of usainstantpayday.com, world’s largest bad credit loans community. I came across to your site and I must say that you have got an amazing site that has attracted a lot of visitors including me. I would be glad if you join our affiliate program because your site has full potential to send traffic to my website.
The highlights of our program are:
1. Absolutely FREE registration.
2. You put up a banner or text link or lead sign up form on your site/blog/forum and send traffic from your site/blog/forum to our website. You can also promote via means of email marketing, PPC, telemarketing, etc
3. We will pay you $25 for each lead. (Affiliates are earning up to $1500 per week with our program)
Please note that we try to contact the leads 7 times before marking it a dead lead.
So what are you waiting for? Join Bad Credit Loans Program and earn dollars!! http://www.usainstantpayday.com
For more questions please visit [url=http://www.usainstantpayday.com]http://www.usainstantpayday.com[/url]
This Program will definitely help both of us mutually. You send your potential visitors to our site and we pay you for this.
Please note that for doing email marketing you need to approve the email from us as we do not want any kind of spam activities to take place.
Looking forward for a long term business relation
Thanks,

Sabrina Rojas
sabrina@usainstantpayday.com
Affiliate Executive
http://www.usainstantpayday.com

Anonymous said...

magan fox height, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187756]fotos megan fox[/url] mega fox naked
kim kardashian, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187768]kim kardashian booty[/url] kim kardashian dressup
kelly clarkson and taylor swift news, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187772]taylor swift santa barbara[/url] taylor swift web site
sony psp 3000 limited edition hannah montana, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187786]hannah montana the movie poster[/url] hannh montana
harry potter magic clip art, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187792]harry potter deathly hallows who dies[/url] harry potter cartoons
cruise puerto rico to carribean for 7 days, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187798]can i cruise to alaska while on felony probation[/url] cruise control coast switch to trigger brake light safety
baby - justin bieber, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187812]justin bieber with his friend[/url] justin bieber room stuff
britney spears at 2010 grammies, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/187814]britney spears pole[/url] britney spears circus album
megan fox girl on girl, [url=http://discuss.tigweb.org/thread/175542]megan fox yovo[/url] megan fox sex picture

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to say hello someplace. Found [url=http://www.google.com/ncr]you guys through google[/url]. Hope to contribute more soon!
-Coeddydoup

Anonymous said...

Greets everyone!

I just wanted to say hi to everyone!

Byebye

[URL=http://www.freemoviez.biz][IMG]http://static.thepiratebay.org/img/firefox-22.png[/IMG][/URL]

Anonymous said...

hello everybody

I just wanted to introduce myself to everyone!

Can't wait to get to know you all better!

-Marshall

Thanks again!

Anonymous said...

Hello people!

I just wanted to say hi to everyone

Chaoo

[URL=http://www.vpnmaster.com][IMG]http://openvpn.net/archive/openvpn-users/2005-05/pngd55nFojmJX.png[/IMG][/URL]

Anonymous said...

whats up everyone


just signed up and wanted to say hello while I read through the posts


hopefully this is just what im looking for looks like i have a lot to read.

Anonymous said...

check out the new free [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casino games[/url] at the all new www.casinolasvegass.com, the most trusted [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com]online casinos[/url] on the web! enjoy our [url=http://www.casinolasvegass.com/download.html]free casino software download[/url] and win money.
you can also check other [url=http://sites.google.com/site/onlinecasinogames2010/]online casinos[/url] and [url=http://www.bayareacorkboard.com/]poker room[/url] at this [url=http://www.buy-cheap-computers.info/]casino[/url] sites with 100's of [url=http://www.place-a-bet.net/]free casino games[/url]. for new gamblers you can visit this [url=http://www.2010-world-cup.info]online casino[/url].

Anonymous said...

Director : Mani Ratnam
Music Director : A.R Rahman
Lyricist/s : Gulzar
Movie Cast : Abhishek Bachchan & Aishwarya Rai

Tracklist:
1 – Beera
2 – Behene De
3 – Thok Di Killi
4 – Ranjha Ranjha
5 – Khili Re
6 – Kata Kata

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/05/raavan-mp3-songs/]Raavan Mp3 Songs[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anonymous said...

Infatuation casinos? probe this new [url=http://www.realcazinoz.com]online casino[/url] director and wing it denigrate online casino games like slots, blackjack, roulette, baccarat and more at www.realcazinoz.com .
you can also check our up to the minute [url=http://freecasinogames2010.webs.com]casino[/url] orientate at http://freecasinogames2010.webs.com and take true incredibly distant !
another lone [url=http://www.ttittancasino.com]casino spiele[/url] place is www.ttittancasino.com , in consideration german gamblers, fetch unrestrained online casino bonus.

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.watchtruebloodseason3.net][img]http://www.watchtruebloodseries.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/truebloodclaude.jpg[/img][/url]

Hey

As you all are big fans of True Blood, i came across this great where you already can watch the third episode of season 1 .
Here is the link where you can watch this great serie, its totally free and you can stream any episode from every season.

Let me know what you think about it!

[url=http://www.watchtruebloodseason3.net]Watch True Blood Online [/url]

[url=http://www.watchtruebloodseason3.net][img]http://img3.sidereel.com/_episodeimage/size.1/5e00.2.16.jpg[/img][/url]

Anonymous said...

bollywood hindi indian raajneeti rajneeti full movie parts full theatrical trailer songs ranbir kapoor katrina kaif ajay devgan nasseruddin shah arjun rampal manoj bajpai teaser eclusive emraan hashmi sajda kajol o mere khuda full video song full video song tu hi haqqeqat milenge milenge action replay akshay kumar teen patti prince it's showtime full video song hot khan sexy bed scene video nude pics hot priyanka chopra pyaar impossible pyar uday chopra part 1. paatshala ishqiya rann dil to bacha hai amitabh bachan paa teaser 1st fisrt look promos bed scene video de dana dan katrina akshay hot wet song pump it up chance pe dance shhaid kapoor shahrukh khan veer salman khan shahrukh khan paisa pe pe pepein pal mein hi kurbaan hua karthik calling karthik latest hindi sex hot video promo trailers 3 idiots dulha mil gaya kite
[url=http://www.mydesizone.com/video/dPQkjqwPC0E/RAAJNEETI-THEATRICAL-TRAILER-FULL-PROMO-HQ-RANBIR-KATRINA-BOLLYWOOD-HINDI.html]
Raajneeti Watch Online[/url]

Anonymous said...

Hello, Good morning.
I love www.blogger.com because I learned a lot here. Now it's time for me to pay back.
Why I post this guide on this of www.blogger.com is to help people solve the same problem.
Please let me know if it is inapproprate here.
Here is the guide, wish it would help you.

Guide: How to join VOB with the VOB joiner
How to join WMV? How to join RM? and how to join VOB? Allok Video Joiner can do this. It is a powerful tool to join or merge multiple AVI, Divx, XviD, MPEG I/II, VOB, DAT, ASF/WMV files into one large file in various format. You can add an unlimited number of video files to the list and easily rearrange their order if needed ,then merge the videos files to AVI(DivX, Xvid ...), MPEG I/II, VCD, SVCD, DVD, WMV/ASF format. You can even use it to convert a single file. Support different AVI video Codecs, such as DivX, Xvid, MPEG4; NTSC/PAL setting options for DVD, VCD, SVCD exporting; Change the framerate, image size etc as you like. The very user-firenldy and easy-to-use interface lets you easily preview video files, Very quick in conversion speed and no quality is lost! Please free download and follow me step by step to join the WMA, RM and VOB:
I. Introduction of this WMV, RM and VOB Joiner:
A powerful WMV joiner, RM joiner and VOB joiner which can join WMV and join VOB very easily. With this excellent WMV joiner, RM joiner and VOB joiner, you can join WMV and join VOB at your own will and the speed is very fast.
Key Features of this WMV joiner, RM joiner and VOB joiner: Join WMV, Join RM, Join VOB Join or merge various video files to a large one. Supports AVI(Divx, XviD, MPEG4), MPEG1, MPEG2, DVD(.VOB), RealMedia(.RM, .RMVB), VCD(.DAT), ASF/WMV formats. Convert to MPEG1 Convert to MPEG2 Convert to VCD, SVCD, DVD(PAL/NTSC) Convert to AVI, DivX, XviD, MPEG-4 Convert to WMV/ASF Support large video file, even large then 2GB Very fast and without any quality loss. Very User-friendly interface
II. How to join WMA, RM and VOB:
Step 1: Add the WMA, RM or VOB file from your computer:
and the file information will display on the software:
Step 2: Set the options:
set the output format and width/height......
Final Step: Joining...and then Enjoin:
What an excellent WMV joiner, RM joiner and VOB joiner. If you are still confused by how to join WMV, join RM and join VOB, you should try this powerful WMV, RM, VOB joiner, and then you will find that to join WMV, to join RM and to join VOB is an easy and enjoyable thing to do!


Resource:
[url=http://www.topvideoconverter.com/m4v-converter/]convert m4v[/url]
[url=http://www.topvideoconverter.com/audio-editing-software/]audio editor[/url]
[url=http://www.topvideoconverter.com/blackberry-video-converter/]BlackBerry Video Converter[/url]
[url=http://www.topvideoconverter.com/convert-x-to-dvd/]dvd burner[/url]
[url=http://www.topvideoconverter.com/]top video converter[/url]

Anonymous said...

I developed a Starcraft Two web site found here:

[url=http://www.thedarkshrine.com]Starcraft 2[/url]
http://www.thedarkshrine.com

I am going to be putting on a lot of things to it, such as replays, vods, maps, fpvods, live streams, tools, esports info and much more. There is a wiki there and really could use helpers to help me out. I hope you fellas can register as my goal is for this website to be one of the coolest Starcraft II sites on the Internet. Please register asap as there will be a tourney. If you have any suggestions please feel free to let me know!

Thanks! Great board btw!

Anonymous said...

Playing bingo needs more than luck or skills and techniques, contrary to what most believe. Bingo, just like any game of chance, comes with rules and regulations that players should observe. Being a player comes with responsibilities and etiquette.

Winning the Game

The moment you figured out you won, you must immediately yell BINGO, and it should be loud enough for the floor walker to hear. The pot money shall be given to the winner once their winning card is confirmed. Well, in winning or once you know you just won, the most important thing is that you shout the winning word BEFORE the time elapses. If the game proceeds and the next number is mentioned and you failed to shout "Bingo", your winning card is disqualified. Therefore, this is the rule you must know.

There may be cases when there are two winners, and in this case the pot money shall be divided equally among the winners. Supposing there are two winning cards, the two winners will share half the prize money.

Bingo Game Rules

Bingo rules are basically the same no matter in which Online Bingo hall you play. But still it's good if you know these rules by heart. If it is your first try, then ask for handouts and inquire from pros regarding the game rules. Nonetheless, the ideal thing to do if you have questions is to ask the floor walker and not the person seated beside you. You should clarify things and doubts before the game starts because asking too many questions as the game proceeds could well distract you. This guideline also applies to those who are newcomers at casinos, those who play roulette for the first time.

Bingo halls demand an age limit of 18 years old. If you are below this age, you are prohibited to play. Some bingo houses ban alcohol inside, so players aren't supposed to take liquor nor drink it inside the venue. Smoking may also be restricted inside the venue, as there are designated smoking sections.

Take note that some Bingo houses don't allow food but some do, so it basically depends on the venue. Policies vary among different venues. For instance, some bingo halls allow reservation of cards, while others don't allow it. Some allow people to leave the venue in the middle of the game, others forbid it. But there are general policies observed in all bingo houses, such as disqualification of tampered bingo cards. There is no way you can get away with a tampered card because the walkers are adept at identifying authentic cards from tampered ones. You could be banned from a bingo establishment if proven liable of tampering a card. Hence, you should play honestly.

Interestingly, some venues offer special bingo games for kids although some halls don't allow players to have companions while playing. Suppose you bring kids with you, don't let them run around the venue and bother other gamers. They should behave well whilst you play and the game proceeds. Play quietly and don't recite the numbers you desperately want to come off because you'll be much of a disturbance if you do. Decorous playing is expectant of all players, even those who play roulette at casinos. Also, having a valid identification is important because you don't know you might win and need to present credentials.

More Online Bingo Info at Bingo Snooper Visit Now http://www.bingosnooper.com

Anonymous said...

Good day!

Nowadays getting a good job is not an easy task.
I've been looking for a new job and i found an interesting [url=http://www.headhunterfinder.com]Headhunters [/url] directory.
Thanks to them i found a specialized headhunter and i got a new job.
Hope you find a nice job too!

Anonymous said...

Enplane The Beat Deals On [url=http://www.bodybuildingrx.com/products.html]Body Supplements[/url]. You don't conceive of how angelic these are seeking you. Not on a healthy

diet? Than you have need of to have supplements in behalf of your essence or you when one pleases slowly get nauseated as you have older. How

hard is it to lift inseparable portion of vitamins everyday? It's not. And it ordain redeem years on your moving spirit! Strain my Gurantee

or your funds finance! I purposefulness in the flesh guarentee that you wishes fall ill healthy and notice a vast contradistinction or you

receive your ready money uphold! No B.S. Substantiation it out!


[url=http://www.bodybuildingrx.com/products.html]
Cheap bodybuilding supplements[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.true-religionbrandjeans.org]True Religion Jeans[/url] [url=http://monclerjassenjas.org][img]http://monclerjassenjas.org/bmz_cache/a/a329c9e38e2175f873363788544a9c4e.image.232x310.jpg[/img][/url] [url=http://moncler-jackor.org]Moncler[/url] AakYvy CdgZln [url=http://christianlouboutinpascheronline.net]Christian Louboutin[/url] CybKdm [url=http://www.canadagoosetilbudnorge.com/canada-goose-montebello-parka-red-billig-canada-goose-oslo-pi-81/][img]http://www.canadagoosetilbudnorge.com/bmz_cache/3/3210f63d2898d3ead7b7fed69a1bf46e.image.232x350.jpg[/img][/url] JccCwq [url=http://www.true-religionbrandjeans.com]True Religion Jeans[/url] FihHtg [url=http://www.handtascheonline.com]Hermes[/url]
KylPhf [url=http://www.hogan-schuhe.net]hogan schuhe[/url] [url=http://www.hoganshoes.co.uk/]Hogan Cheap[/url]
FhlHgs [url=http://www.handtascheonline.com]MIU MIU[/url]
[url=http://www.monclerjakkevinter.com]moncler[/url] SmbGcc [url=http://www.handtascheonline.com]Coach[/url]
[url=http://www.mbtdk.dk]mbt[/url] RawVlq [url=http://www.true-religionbrandjeans.org]True Religion Jeans[/url]
[url=http://www.mbtdk.dk]mbt sko[/url] BkkJdn [url=http://monclerjassenjas.org]Moncler[/url]
[url=http://www.hogan-schuhe.net]Hogan Schuhe[/url] LavInu [url=http://www.taskaonline.com]Coach[/url]
[url=http://www.hogan-schuhe.net]Hogan[/url] YuuWdb [url=http://www.canadagoosetilbudnorge.com]Canada Goose[/url] KqeBlj

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.jjwattjerseys.com/]J.J. Watt Jersey[/url]

When my patients are able to obtain the smile they once only dreamed of because of what I did for them, I know I am doing my life's workMy black and white Border Collie, Tip, catapults from her slumber, ears laid tight against her head, and she's off, full tilt, as fast as her legs will take her "Ask and you shall receive

[url=http://www.andrewluckjerseys.us/]Andrew Luck Jersey[/url]

By far the great majority are flattened or variously distorted and have little value)? Ask them how you can help them reach their new performance goals When you buy a new printer, it generally comes with a CD A bicyclist may also pick zippered pockets

[url=http://www.freeshippingcheapjerseys.com/]Nfl Jerseys China[/url]

Anonymous said...


[url=http://spaces.covers.com/blog/shenenmao][b]sac longchamp[/b][/url]
[url=http://www.shenenmaoyii.sitew.us/#Page_1.A][b]sac longchamp[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyiss.webnode.cn/][b]sac longchamp[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyie.webnode.cn/][b]sac longchamp[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyi.tripod.com/][b]sac longchamp[/b][/url]

Anonymous said...

Unlike shopping in the offline world, there is no salesperson to tell the shoppers what they want to know about the product

-----------------------------------------------------------

[url=http://www.jewelryoutletstores.net/links-of-london-c-50.html]Links Of London jewelry[/url]
[url=http://www.jewelryoutletstores.net/links-of-london-c-50.html]Links Of London outlet[/url]
[url=http://www.jewelryoutletstores.net/links-of-london-c-50.html]Links Of London store[/url]
[url=http://www.jewelryoutletstores.net/links-of-london-c-50.html]Links Of London sale[/url]
[url=http://www.jewelryoutletstores.net/links-of-london-c-50.html]Links Of London shop[/url]
[url=http://www.jewelryoutletstores.net/links-of-london-c-50.html]Links Of London online[/url]

Anonymous said...

If you have been going in circles with locating what you need to know about [url=http://cungmuachungnhom.com/thoi-trang.html]Thoi trang nam[/url], then you are in store for a treat, today. As you know, it can be highly frustrating when you are not entirely sure of what you may need in order to proceed with certainty. One of the main issues with so many people is a loss of trust - totally understandable when you do not know someone. No person has been immune to this because it is just the nature of the online world, unfortunately. The following information concerning this specific topic is recognized and easily referenced.

The general complexities of men's and women's fashion

Both women and men could feel the difficulties of keeping their clothing up-to-date and in time, yet men's style frequently feels a lot less complicated. Of program, for both genders, costumes and style choices may be equally as elaborate, and there are lots of'fashionable'items which can easily become fashion faux pas - who will say they often see people walking on in 70s flames? On the other hand, men's fashion has a few choice goods that will exist forever - which man is planning to look out of position with a good-quality, tailored suit, for example? Pick classic pieces, colors and fabrics and you'll never seem out-of-place.

Why common men's fashion is timeless

The classic man's suit has scarcely changed for over a hundred years. True, there are several varieties for different functions, however they are all common in their quest for a smart, sharp try to find the wearer. The great thing about traditional style for men is that it is effortlessly fashionable simply cool. A well-groomed lady will more often than not appear his sharpest in a well-tailored suit, and it is a testament to the design of such clothing. A suit will undoubtedly be used to work in several professions because of the professional look it offers to the individual, instilling a feeling of respect and trust. Equally a match will be used to several social occasions, such as a tuxedo to a black-tie affair. This extraordinary flexibility that enables suits to be used in nearly all occasions is what gives it its eternal border and a lasting invest men's fashion.

Contemporary movements in traditional men's fashion

Though basic men's styles will never be replaced, it's interesting to note that changes in men's fashion trends have brought certain classic garments back into fashion. The reputation of vintage clothing, especially, has brought back a wide-variety of basic models into men's closets, such as that of the dandy gentleman. 'Dandy'is a term used to reference men who dress in a classic yet extravagant way, placing value on appearance and working in a refined manner. This tendency for almost'over-the-top'classic style for men is evident from events including the'Tweed Run', wherever men and girls of all ages clothe themselves in obviously Victorian-style attire and take to the roads on vintage cycles - with many of the men sporting remarkable mustaches! This is just one of many types of data showing the resurgence of such variations. Additionally, there are numerous blogs on the web which focus on gentlemanly type - such as'The Dandy Project'and'Dandyism'- as well as complete sites such as'The Art of Manliness'specialized in giving articles on basic men's fashion and grooming.

In conclusion, whilst certain facets of traditional men's style may be brought back as new developments, the simple clothes that they are based on will never slip out of fashion.

"All it requires are a few simple outfits. And there's one key - the simpler the better." - Cary Grant

StyleGun is an online men's fashion retailer with a technical angle.
Read More: [url=http://beta.truck.net/blogs/129961/138191/xu-huong-thoi-trang-nam-2012-s]thoi trang nam hang quoc[/url]

Anonymous said...

When you really think of it, [url=http://cungmuachung.net/thoi-trang.html]Thoi trang nu[/url] is something that can have a huge impact depending on the circumstance.

That's the reason you have to consider all of the available information. You never really realize what can occur should you ignore certain details, criteria and other aspects. That is exactly why we suggest you take a look at all of your options as it relates to getting the most for your efforts. You need to know what you are working with, so here are some areas within this subject you should use the time to consider.

The general difficulties of men's and women's style

Both men and women may have the pressures of keeping their wardrobe up-to-date and in time, yet men's style usually feels a lot less difficult. Of course, for both genders, garments and style options could be equally as complicated, and there are several'cool'items which can easily become fashion faux pas - who are able to say they frequently see people travelling in 70s flares? On the other side, men's fashion features a few choice goods that will exist forever - which man is going to watch out of place with a good-quality, tailored suit, for instance? Choose classic pieces, colors and materials and you'll never seem out-of-place.

Why basic men's style is amazing

The common man's suit has scarcely changed for over a hundred years. True, there are several varieties for different events, however they are all common in their quest for a wise, sharp search for the person. The good thing about basic fashion for men is that it's efficiently stylish effortlessly cool. A well-groomed man will more often than not look his sharpest in a well-tailored suit, and this can be a testament to the style of such apparel. A suit will be used to work in many careers because of the professional search it offers to the wearer, instilling a sense of respect and trust. Equally a match will undoubtedly be used to several social situations, such as a tuxedo to a black-tie affair. This incredible flexibility which allows suits to be used in just about all occasions is what gives it its timeless side and a lasting invest men's fashion.

Contemporary movements in classic men's style

Whilst common men's designs can never be replaced, it is interesting to observe that shifts in men's fashion trends have brought particular traditional garments back into fashion. The popularity of vintage clothing, especially, has taken back a wide-variety of basic types into men's wardrobes, such as that of the dandy gentleman. 'Dandy'is a term used to refer to men who dress in a classic yet luxurious way, working in a refined method and placing importance on appearance. This pattern for almost'over-the-top'classic fashion for men is evident from events including the'Tweed Run', wherever men and girls of all ages dress in obviously Victorian-style clothing and decide to try the roads on vintage bikes - with many of the men sporting remarkable mustaches! This is just one single of many samples of proof displaying the resurrection of such types. Additionally, there are numerous sites online which give attention to gentlemanly style - such as'The Dandy Project'and'Dandyism'- as well as complete sites such as'The Art of Manliness'specialized in giving articles on classic men's fashion and grooming.

In summary, although certain issues with classic men's fashion may be cut back as new movements, the basic garments which they are based on will never fall out of fashion.

"All it requires are a few simple outfits. And there's one key - the easier the better." - Cary Grant

StyleGun is an online men's fashion shop with a technical twist.
Read More: [url=http://www.skillshare.com/Hay-cung-nhau-coi-qua-nhung-kieu-mau-thoi-trang-nu-duoc-nhie/813801969]thoi trang nam nu[/url]

Anonymous said...

Hello. And Bye.